Us weakness runs deeper than the headline title
The most telling figure in Wine Australia's June 2026 Export Report isn't the biggest one. Exports to the United States fell 27 per cent in value to $229 million and 15 per cent in volume – and the full report shows this isn't one bad year but the acceleration of a decade-long slide. US volume has almost halved since 2017, from 179 million litres to 95 million, with value down by roughly the same proportion, from $464 million to $229 million. Both now sit at 25-year lows.
What sets the US apart from Australia's other soft markets is the breadth of it. In the UK, premium wines held while commercial volume bled away. In the US the contraction ran through nearly every price tier and all major styles. The two lowest commercial segments – together more than 97 per cent of Australia's US volume – both fell, the $2.50–4.99 band hardest at 32 per cent by value. More expensive wines dropped too, most by 20 to 40 per cent, with only the $20–29.99 segment growing. Still red wine, long the backbone of the trade, has more than halved in value since 2017.
Wine Australia's Aaron Ridgway put it bluntly: with US domestic wine having lost its own key export market in Canada, oversupply and heavy discounting are eroding demand for imports, and the damage falls hardest on the commercial tier that still makes up the bulk of Australia's US book. For the premium end of the trade, that's a more sobering signal than any single market's decline.
Exports fall below 600 million litres for the first time since 2004
Overall, exports fell 7 per cent in value to $2.30 billion and 6 per cent in volume to 598 million litres – the first time volume has dropped below 600 million litres since 2004. Wine Australia casts it as a global story: worldwide consumption is at its lowest since 1961. China remained the largest market by value despite falling 15 per cent to $756 million as the post-tariff restocking phase ran its course, while the UK held top spot by volume on a 3 per cent value decline to $340 million.
Canada the standout – with an asterisk
The bright spot was Canada, up 20 per cent in value to $188 million, its highest in seven years, with volume up 13 per cent. But the gain leaned on shelf space vacated by American wine during the Canada–US trade dispute – Canadian imports of US wine fell 69 per cent by volume over the year – and it was almost entirely a first-three-quarters story, with value flat by the fourth. Bailey's read is that the market-share windfall is already stabilising. Elsewhere in Asia, Singapore became Australia's largest market outside mainland China and Thailand hit record values on premium demand.
